香港大學公布二零一三年第一季宏觀經濟預測

香港經濟展望

香港大學香港經濟及商業策略研究所亞太經濟合作研究項目今天(1月3日)發表高頻宏觀經濟預測。根據高頻宏觀經濟預測，2012年第四季實質本地生產總值將較去年同期上升2.2%，這預測是我們於2012年10月10日公布的1.9%的上調，反映外部需求轉強。

 香港大學經濟學教授王于漸指出：「隨着歐洲主權債務危機漸趨穩定及美國經濟溫和復甦，估計2012年下半年實質經濟增長為1.7%，較上半年的增長加速0.9%。2012年全年實質經濟增長估計為1.3%，經濟增長主要由本地需求所帶動。在經濟增長中，有3.4個百分點由本地需求的增加所帶動，而外部需求相反拖累2.1個百分點。由於外部環境改善，預計本季的實質本地生產總值增長會加速至2.9%。」

「在全球經濟不穩的陰霾籠罩下，香港就業市場將繼續疲軟，預計失業率由2012年第四季的3.4%，略升至2013年第一季的3.5%。由於勞動人口增長速率比就業人口增長快，估計失業人數將上升3,000人。整體通脹率預計由2012年第四季的3.7%，下降至本季的3.2%。預料未來數季的通脹壓力將放緩，反映較低的市場價格預期。」香港大學經濟學助理教授王家富博士補充說。

預測的詳細內容分別見於圖表一及圖表二；而各項按月計算的指標性預測則見於圖表三。另外，下列發表的所有增長比率皆是以按年計算的幅度為基礎。

預測報告之摘要

• 2012年第三季私人消費開支增長2.8%，從2012年第二季的增長3.1%減速。由於全球經濟前景不明朗，強勁消費增長將進一步放緩。預料2012年第四季私人消費開支增長放緩至2.6%，上年全年私人消費開支增長為3.7%，本季將減至2.5%。
• 2012年第三季零售量總額上升4.2%，增長速度慢於第二季的7.3%。隨着訪港旅客人數減慢及其消費更謹慎，估計零售量總額增長進一步放緩。在去年10月份，零售量總額上升3.6%。預計2012年第四季零售量總額增長為3.6%，上年全年增長6.4%，本季為3.2%。
• 在外部需求改善下，貨物出口從2012年第二季下跌0.2%的情況下逆轉，在第三季恢復增長4.0%。估計2012年第四季貨物出口增長5.0%。考慮到2012年上半年貨物出口下跌2.6%，預計全年增長為1.0%，本季則增長5.7%。
• 貨物進口增長從2012年第二季的0.9%，加速至第三季的4.3%。由於全球需求改善，在出口強勁增長的同時，估計貨物進口增長可望維持。預計2012年第四季貨物進口增長為5.6%，全年為2.3%。本季則為6.7%。
• 2012年第三季本港服務出口增長為0.1%，較2012年第二季增長2.9%為低。旅遊相關活動及其他商業服務出口減弱，將拖累貿易相關服務的需求。儘管訪港旅客在2012年11月上升18.7%，但由於旅客消費審慎，旅遊相關服務並無獲益。預計2012年第四季服務出口增長2.6%，全年增長2.0%，本季則加速至4.1%。
• 服務進口增長從2012年第二季的1.6%，減速至2012年第三季的0.9%。預料2012年第四季增長2.6%，全年增長2.2%，本季則增長3.3%。
• 固定資產投資總額從2012年第二季的增長5.7%，加速至第三季的增長8.7％。預料2012年第四季增長6.7%，上年全年增長8.3%，本季則增長6.7%。
• 2012年第三季土地及建築的投資增長7.0%。由於實施新買家印花稅，2012年第四季這投資增長放緩至1.9%，全年增長4.7%。受正進行大型基建項目的持續支持，預料土地及建築的投資在本季增長1.3%。
• 機械、設備及電腦軟件的投資開支在2012年第三季上升9.8%，2012年第四季增加10.1%，2012年全年增長11.0%。預料本季增長11.4%。

• 以綜合消費物價指數按年變化的百份比計算，2012年11月一般價格水平上升了3.7%，食物與私人住宅租金分別佔整體增幅的1.2和1.7個百分點。整體通脹率在2012年第四季增加3.7%，全年增加4.1%。由於食品價格上漲放緩，相對穩定的資產價格和較低的價格預期，通脹壓力有望舒緩。預料本季綜合消費物價指數上升3.2%。

• 2012年9月至11月的季節性調整失業率是3.4%，與 8月至10月相若。預料2012年第四季失業率為3.4%，全年為3.3%。在本季度，失業率微升至3.5%，而失業人數將增加3,000人至總人數132,000人。

總論
儘管面對各種不利因素，包括歐洲債務危機不明朗、美國經濟復甦乏力和中國經濟增長放緩，香港實質本地生產總值在2012年仍錄得1.3%的增長，而2011年則為4.9%。

歐洲債務危機最惡劣的時間或許已經過去，美國經濟似在累積動力，低利率環境極可能持續到2015年，中國經濟預期有少許反彈，在這些情況下，預料2013年實際本地生產總值將增長3.5至4.3％。在未來數個季度，估計通脹率將保持溫和，勞動力市場穩定。

「香港宏觀經濟預測」簡介

「香港宏觀經濟預測」是由香港大學香港經濟及商業策略研究所亞太經濟合作研究項目負責研究及有關工作，旨在為社會提供及時及有用的數據，以追蹤及預測短期的經濟波動。這個宏觀經濟預測，自一九九九年起每季定時發表。

上述研究結果乃採用「高頻」宏觀經濟預測系統而得出。該系統於1999-2000年，由香港大學亞太經濟合作研究中心與美國賓夕凡尼亞大學 Professor Lawrence Klein共同研發。其後，亞洲經濟合作研究中心將系統再加改良，現時是香港經濟及商業策略研究所的研究項目。

這項計劃現由香港大學經濟及工商管理學院贊助，港大香港經濟研究中心則提供行政上的支援，港大香港經濟及商業策略研究所負責所有的研究工作、數據闡釋及確保它們的準確性。如欲查閱每季的經濟預測，可隨時瀏覽以下網頁:

https://www.hiebs.hku.hk/apec/macroforecast.htm

傳媒查詢，請聯絡香港大學傳訊及公共事務處副處長（傳媒）徐佩瑩小姐(電話︰2859 2606/電郵: pychoy@hku.hk ) 或港大傳訊及公共事務處經理(傳媒)尹慧筠小姐 (電話︰2859 2600/電郵︰melwkwan@hku.hk)。

Professor Richard Wong Yue-Chim, Professor of Economics at HKU said that, "In the third quarter of 2012, some stabilization has been seen from the European sovereign debt crisis along with mild recovery in the US economy.  Real GDP is estimated to grow by 1.7% in the second half of 2012, accelerating from the 0.9% increase in the first half.  For the year as a whole, real GDP is forecast to increase by 1.3% in 2012.  The growth in real GDP is driven primarily by domestic demand.  The increase in domestic demand is estimated to account for 3.4 percentage points of the overall increase in real GDP in the 2012, with external demand making a negative contribution of 2.1 percentage points.  In the current quarter, real GDP growth is forecast to speed up and grow by 2.9% when compared to the same period last year, reflecting the improvement in external demand."

"Clouded by the uncertainties in the global economy, the job market in Hong Kong will be worsened with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 3.4% in 12Q4 to 3.5% in 13Q1.  The number of unemployed workers is projected to increase by 3,000 as a result of the faster growth of labour force than the employment growth.  The headline inflation is forecast to be 3.2% in the current quarter, down from the estimated 3.7% in 12Q4.  Inflationary pressure is expected to ease further reflecting a lowered price expectation in the upcoming quarters," according to Dr. Ka-fu Wong, Assistant Professor of Economics at HKU.

The forecast details are in Table 1 and Table 2, and the forecasts of selected monthly indicators are in Table 3.  All growth rates reported are on a year-on-year basis.

Forecast Highlights

• Private consumption spending grew by 2.8% in 12Q3, decelerating from the 3.1% growth in 12Q2.  This strong consumption growth is expected to moderate further given the uncertainties in the global economic outlook.  The growth in private consumption expenditure is estimated to moderate to 2.6% in 12Q4.  For the last year as a whole, private consumption spending is projected to grow by 3.7%.  In the current quarter, the growth rate is forecast to slow down to 2.5%.
• The volume of retail sales increased by 4.2 % in 12Q3, slower than the 7.3% in 12Q2.  With slower growth of visitor arrivals and more cautious spending of visitors, the volume of retail sales is expected to moderate further.  In October 2012, the volume grew by 3.6%.  The growth in the volume of retail sales is estimated to be 3.6% in 12Q4, and 6.4% for the whole of last year.  In the current quarter, it is forecast to grow by 3.2%. 
• Reflecting the improvement in the external demand, the exports of goods grew by 4.0% in 12Q3, reverted the 0.2% drop in 12Q2. In 12Q4, it is estimated to grow by 5.0%, supported by the economic recovery in the United States.  Taking into account of the 2.6% slowdown in the first half of 2012, the exports of goods is estimated to grow by 1.0% for 2012 as a whole.  In the current quarter, it is projected to grow by 5.7%.
• Imports of goods increased by 4.3% in 12Q3, accelerating from the 0.9% growth in 12Q2.  In tandem with stronger growth in exports, this pickup is projected to continue due to the better global demand.  Imports of goods is estimated to grow by 5.6% in 12Q4, and by 2.3% for the whole of last year.  In the current quarter, it is forecast to rise by 6.7%.
• Service exports grew by 0.1% in 12Q3, slowing down from the 2.9% growth in 12Q2.  The weakening in tourism related activities, as well as other business service exports, dragged down the demand for Hong Kong service exports.  Despite the visitor arrivals rose by 18.7% in November 2012, tourism related services were not benefited as a result of their cautious spending.  The increase in service exports is forecast to be 2.6% in 12Q4, and 2.0% for the whole of last year.  In the current quarter, the growth of service exports is forecast to accelerate to 4.1%.
• Service imports went up by 0.9% in 12Q3, decelerating from the 1.6% growth in 12Q2.  Service imports is forecast to grow by 2.6% in 12Q4 and 2.2% for the whole of last year.  It is estimated to grow by 3.3% in the current quarter.
• Gross fixed capital formation grew by 8.7% in 12Q3, accelerating from the 5.7% growth in 12Q2.  It is projected to grow by 6.7% in 12Q4, and to grow by 8.3% for the whole of last year.  In the current quarter, gross fixed capital formation is forecast to increase by 6.7%.
• Investment in land and construction increased by 7.0% in 12Q3, and is estimated to moderate to 1.9% growth in 12Q4, as a result of the new buyer’s stamp duty.  For the year of 2012 as a whole, it is estimated to grow by 4.7%.  With the continued support of ongoing major infrastructural projects, the growth in land and construction investment is expected to grow by 1.3% in the current quarter.
• Investment spending in machinery, equipment and computer software rose by 9.8% in 12Q3, and is projected to increase by 10.1% in 12Q4, and by 11.0% for the year of 2012 as a whole.  In the current quarter, it is forecast to grow by 11.4%.

• The general price level, as measured by the Composite CPI, rose by 3.7% in November 2012, with food prices and private rental rates accounting for 1.2 and 1.7 percentage points respectively of the overall increase.  The headline consumer inflation rate is estimated to be 3.7% in 12Q4, and 4.1% for the whole of last year.  Given the easing in food prices, relative stabilized asset prices and lower price expectation, inflationary pressure is expected to ease.  In the current quarter, the headline consumer inflation rate is projected to increase by 3.2%.

• The provisional seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 3.4% in the three months ending in November 2012 from the three months ending in October 2012.  The unemployment rate is estimated to be 3.4% in 12Q4, and 3.3% on average for the whole of last year.  In the current quarter, unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 3.5%, with the number of unemployed workers increasing by 3,000 to 132,000 in total.

Concluding Remarks

Despite various adverse factors including the uncertainties over the European debt crisis, the weak economic recovery of the United States and the slightly slower growth of the Chinese economy, Hong Kong’s GDP growth still managed to grow by 1.3% in 2012, down from the 4.9% growth in 2011.

The worst time of European debt crisis might have been over.  The recovery of the US economy seems gathering steam.  The low interest rate environment will likely continue through 2015.  China's economy is expected to rebound a bit.  Under these conditions, real GDP is forecast to increase by 3.5 to 4.3 percents for 2013.  Consumer inflation is expected to be mild and the labour market stable in the upcoming quarters.

About Hong Kong Macroeconomic Forecast Project

The Hong Kong Macroeconomic Forecast is based on research conducted by the APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at HKU in the Faculty of Business and Economics.  It aims to provide the community with timely information useful for tracking the short-term fluctuations of the economy.  The current quarter marco forecasts have been released on a quarterly basis since 1999.

The high frequency forecasting system was originally developed in collaboration with Professor Lawrence Klein of the University of Pennsylvania in 1999-2000.  Since then, the system has been maintained and further refined by the APEC Study Center which is now a research programme area of the Hong Kong Institution of Economics and Business Strategy.

The project is sponsored by the Faculty of Business and Economics.  The Hong Kong Centre for Economic Research at HKU provides administrative support to the project.  Researchers at the Hong Kong Institution of Economics and Business Strategy are solely responsible for the accuracy and interpretation of the forecasts. Our quarterly forecasts can be accessed at: https://www.hiebs.hku.hk/apec/macroforecast.htm

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