香港大學公布二零一三年第四季宏觀經濟預測

香港經濟展望

香港大學香港經濟及商業策略研究所亞太經濟合作研究項目今天(十月八日)發表高頻宏觀經濟預測。報告指出，2013年第三季實質本地生產總值較去年同期上升3.6%，與2013年7月4日的預測一致。預料2013年第四季實質本地生產總值將較去年同期上升至3.7%。

香港大學經濟學教授王于漸指出：「鑑於美國經濟的溫和復甦、低利率環境和中國經濟持續增長，香港在2013年恢復經濟增長動力。預料香港實質本地生產總值由上半年增長的3.1%，增加至下半年3.7%。預期全年實質本地生產總值的增長為3.4%。今年實質本地生產總值增長主要由本地需求所驅動，其中，本地需求增長貢獻了3.8個百分點，而外部需求則拖累0.4個百分點。」

「預料就業市場仍穩定，估計失業率在2013年第四季穩定於3.3%的水平，失業人數下跌11,000人，就業人數則上升24,000人。預料整體通脹由2013年上半年的3.9%，上升至下半年的4.7%。扣除財政措施的影響，2013年下半年整體通脹率估計為4.2%。」香港大學經濟學首席講師王家富博士補充說。

預測的詳細內容分別見於圖表一及圖表二；而各項按月計算的指標性預測則見於圖表三。發表的所有增長比率皆是以按年計算的幅度為基礎。

預測報告之摘要

總論
我們修訂2013全年實質本地生產總值的增長率為3.4％，增長主要由於輕微改善的外部需求和強勁的內部需求所帶動。可是這增長率接近年初預測的下限，原因是外部需求較我們預期的為弱。

儘管仍存在各種不確定因素（如美國政府暫時關閉），在首三季度，美國經濟已呈現溫和復甦，歐元區已走出谷底，以及內地經濟繼續保持一個合理的速度增長。預計在可見的將來香港經濟仍受外部需求改善與強勁的內部需求所主導。

「香港宏觀經濟預測」簡介
「香港宏觀經濟預測」是由香港大學香港經濟及商業策略研究所亞太經濟合作研究項目負責研究及有關工作，旨在為社會提供及時及有用的數據，以追蹤及預測短期的經濟波動。這個宏觀經濟預測，自一九九九年起每季定時發表。

上述研究結果乃採用「高頻」宏觀經濟預測系統而得出。該系統於1999-2000年，由香港大學亞太經濟合作研究中心與美國賓夕凡尼亞大學 Professor Lawrence Klein共同研發。其後，亞洲經濟合作研究中心將系統再加改良，現時是香港經濟及商業策略研究所的研究項目。

這項計劃現由香港大學經濟及工商管理學院贊助，港大香港經濟研究中心則提供行政上的支援，港大香港經濟及商業策略研究所負責所有的研究工作、數據闡釋及確保它們的準確性。

傳媒查詢，請聯絡香港大學傳訊及公共事務處助理總監(傳媒)徐佩瑩小姐(電話 2859 2606/電郵 pychoy@hku.hk ) 或經理(傳媒)梁菁栘小姐 (電話 2857 8555/電郵 rhea.leung@hku.hk )。

• The provisional seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 3.3% in the 3 months ending in August 2013, reflecting tight labour market.  With steady rise in real wage and stable job market, the number of jobs is estimated to increase by 24,000 and the number of unemployed workers to drop by 11,000 in 13Q4 comparing with previous quarter.  The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 3.3% in both 13Q3 and 13Q4.  For the year of 2013 as a whole, the unemployment rate is estimated to average out to be 3.3%.

Concluding Remarks

We revised our real GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2013 to 3.4%. This growth is driven mainly by the mild improvement of the external sector and the robust internal demand.  This forecast growth rate is near the lower bound of our forecast we set out at the beginning of the year, and this is mainly due to the weaker-than-expected recovery of the external sector.

Despite various uncertainties (such as the temporary shutdown of the US government), the US economy has showed moderate recovery, the Eurozone has bottomed out, and the Mainland economy has continued to grow at a reasonable rate in the first three quarters. We expect the improvement of the external sector and the robust internal demand will continue to drive our growth in the near future.

About Hong Kong Macroeconomic Forecast Project
The Hong Kong Macroeconomic Forecast is based on research conducted by the APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at HKU in the Faculty of Business and Economics.  It aims to provide the community with timely information useful for tracking the short-term fluctuations of the economy.  The current quarter marco forecasts have been released on a quarterly basis since 1999.

The high frequency forecasting system was originally developed in collaboration with Professor Lawrence Klein of the University of Pennsylvania in 1999-2000.  Since then, the system has been maintained and further refined by the APEC Study Center which is now a research programme area of the Hong Kong Institution of Economics and Business Strategy.

The project is sponsored by the Faculty of Business and Economics.  The Hong Kong Centre for Economic Research at HKU provides administrative support to the project.  Researchers at the Hong Kong Institution of Economics and Business Strategy are solely responsible for the accuracy and interpretation of the forecasts. 

For media enquiries, please contact Communications & Public Affairs Office, HKU :Ms Trinni Choy, Assistant Director (Media) (Tel: 2859 2606/Email: pychoy@hku.hk ), or Ms Rhea Leung, Manager (Media) (Tel: 2857 8555/Email: rhea.leung@hku.hk )